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Sampling calculator
How many turnarounds to observe in a cycle, how to spread them across stations and shifts, and how much observer time it takes. Change the numbers and the plan updates.
Will the cycle see it?
The chance that a cycle of this size sees something at least once, and about how many times, for things that happen on a small share of turnarounds.
| Happens on | Chance of seeing it | About how many times |
|---|
A condition or good practice needs to turn up on a fair number of turnarounds before the Expand and Shrink lists can say much about it. Things seen only a few times are still worth reading in the notes and talking through in a Learning Team.
Spreading the sample
- Cover every shift, and busy and quiet times, in each station.
- Mix days of the week, aircraft types, stands and destinations.
- Choose turnarounds ahead of time from the schedule, not on the day, so observers don't drift to the easy or the interesting ones.
- Keep each observer away from their own crew.
- Plan the checking sessions during the cycle, not at the end: a checking group can usually clear a shift's observations in under an hour.
The next cycle uses the same plan, so the two can be compared. See the set-up checklist for the rest of the preparation.